Sandy Stalls Sales

The Commerce Department reported the first drop in consumer sales since June 2012 and analysts are blaming ‘Superstorm’ Sandy on the slip. The storm arrived at typically busy consumer period and auto sales in particular felt the brunt of the blow. Even so, insurance companies note that nearly 250,000 vehicles have been claimed as total losses, which automakers hope will boost sales in the near future. Meanwhile, REtail sales remained flat while gas station sales enjoyed a marginal 1.4% despite falling prices. For more on this continue reading the following article from Iacono Research. 

The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that U.S. retail sales fell last month for the first time since June, down 0.3 percent in October following an upwardly revised gain of 1.3 percent in September, as Superstorm Sandy was cited as having both a positive and negative impact on the data.



Though the effects of the storm could not be isolated, it is believed that its arrival during the busy month-end period depressed East Coast auto sales leading to a decline of 1.5 percent in October auto sales nationally, this following a jump of 1.7 percent the month prior. Automakers said they expected lost sales to quickly be made up as nearly a quarter million vehicles were totaled during the storm.

Excluding autos, retail sales were flat last month after a gain of 1.2 percent in September as 8 of the 13 categories declined, paced by a surprising drop of 1.9 percent at home improvement stores. In the wake of the iPhone 5 launch the month before, electronic store sales fell 1.0 percent and nonstore retailers saw a drop of 1.8 percent. Gasoline station sales rose 1.4 percent even though pump prices fell throughout the month and food & beverage sales rose 0.8 percent, leading the advancing categories.

This blog post was republished with permission from Tim Iacono.

Retail Sales Rise for Ninth Consecutive Month

The Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose for the ninth straight month in March. Learn about which areas grew the most in this full blog post by The Mess That Greenspan Made.

While Americans may be complaining about rising gasoline prices and expressing their growing displeasure via plummeting consumer confidence surveys, they’ve not stopped spending money as the Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that retail sales rose for the ninth straight month in March, up 0.4 percent after an increase of 1.1 percent in February.

Yes, gasoline station sales surged, up another 2.6 percent in March and now almost 17 percent higher than a year ago, but other gains were broad based including notable improvements in housing related categories.

Furniture & home furnishing stores saw sales rise by 3.6 percent and building material & garden equipment retailers reported a gain of 2.2 percent, both of these groups sporting respectable year-over-year gains of 2.7 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively.

Auto sales were down 1.7 percent last month, but this follows many months of gains. Excluding autos, sales gained 0.8 percent and, excluding both autos and gasoline, March sales were up 0.6 percent after rising 0.9 percent in February. One important caveat here is that these figures are not adjusted for inflation, so, as is the case for gasoline, some of the sales gains in other categories can be attributed to higher prices.

This post was republished with permission from The Mess That Greenspan Made.

Despite Low Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales Are Positive In September

Economic reports in September showed retail sales up slightly with 12 out of 13 major categories posting positive growth. This is despite low consumer sentiment that is 10 percent lower than the average during past recessions. See the following article from The Mess That Greenspan Made.

Two more important economic reports were released earlier today during what was a veritable avalanche of financial news. The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that retail sales rose more than expected in September, up 0.6 percent following an upwardly revised gain of 0.7 percent in August, as the American consumer is clearly not dead yet.



Auto sales bouncing back from a decline of 1.0 percent in August to register a gain of 1.6 percent in September were responsible for about a third of the overall improvement, but gains were broad-based, only one of the 13 major categories – clothing – posting a decline.

Not far behind auto sales were electronics & appliance retailers with an increase of 1.5 percent in sales last month and miscellaneous store retailers and nonstore retailers saw gains of 1.4 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively.

Somewhat surprisingly given the weak housing market, the building materials & garden equipment category along with furniture & home furnishings – two housing related categories – saw solid gains of 0.6 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. Sales for both of these groups have now risen for three consecutive months.

Clothing & clothing accessories was the only group with declining sales at -0.2 percent.

This appears to be yet another case of “don’t watch what I say, watch what I do” for the American consumer because, based on the latest data from Reuters and the University of Michigan, their mood remains stuck at recession levels.



In the first of two readings for October, the consumer sentiment index fell from a final September value of 68.2 to 67.9, still almost ten percent below the average reading of 74.1 during past recessions. As shown above, the average sentiment index during economic expansions of 90.4 hasn’t been seen since February of 2007, almost a year before the recession began, so clearly there is a disconnect in how Americans feel and how they spend.

In the latest data, the current conditions index fell sharply, more than offsetting the improvement in the expectations index, this likely being due to some combination of the persistently weak labor market and, to a lesser extent, recently rising gasoline prices with an increasingly contentious election season perhaps factoring in as well.

This post has been republished from Tim Iacono's blog, The Mess That Greenspan Made.