Thursday, January 22, 2009

What Is Going On In The Forex Market Right Now?

The currency markets have been going crazy lately, with several currency pairs forming new, or close to new, records. With all this volatility what are currency investors to think? Currency expert Kathy Lien attempts to answer this question in her blog post below.

There has been a lot of volatility in the foreign exchange market this morning, driving currencies to historic levels:

GBP/USD - 23 Year Low
USD/JPY - 13 Year Low
NZD/USD - 6 Year Low
EUR/JPY - 6 Year Low
CAD/JPY - 13 Year Low
GBP/JPY - Record Low
NZD/JPY - 8 Year Low

The most significant moves have been in the British pound, which fell to a 23 year low against the US dollar and in USD/JPY, which fell to the lowest level in 13 years. Comments from former Fed Chairman Volcker triggered a wave of risk aversion that led to a technical break in the currency market. He said “we are in serious recession, with no end clearly in sight.” Although there is no question that the US economy is in trouble, by saying that there is no end in sight means that there is no hope which coming from the chairman of Obama’s newly formed Economic Recovery Advisory Board is significant. By saying that he does not an end to the recession is certainly not good advice. Treasury Secretary Nominee Geithner expects an Obama economic stimulus plan to be released in the next few weeks but unfortunately Volcker’s comments overshadowed the prospect of a stimulus plan. Yesterday’s sharp sell-off made investors nervous but Volcker’s comments pushed them over the edge.
We are continuing to see flight to safety into the US dollar and Japanese Yen. Investors are looking to hide in the lowest yielding currencies.

We also had comments from ECB President Trichet and SNB President Hildebrand. Trichet defended the ECB’s monetary policy and said they haven’t decided if 2 percent is the lowest level for rates.

Intervention by Swiss National Bank?

The Swiss franc collapsed after SNB Hildebrand said that the central banks is considering selling francs to halt the currency’s gains. With interest rates already at 0.5 percent, they have no room to ease monetary policy. Therefore they may have to resort to fixed rate currency intervention.

This post can also be viewed on kathylien.com.

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