Wednesday, November 7, 2007

A Recession in the Making?

From Kiplinger:

“On nine occasions since 1960, the U.S. has experienced a decline in residential construction from one year to the next. Seven of those declines were accompanied by recessions, reports James Stack, president of InvesTech Research in Whitefish, Mont.

We're now in the midst of the tenth such decline. What's more, this one is a doozy -- and it keeps getting worse. ‘Economists and government officials have underestimated its size and duration every step of the way,’ Stack warns.”

From Business Week:

“A psychological recession means people are feeling economically and psychologically vulnerable and unprotected now and with regard to the future. Once established, this negative mindset reinforces people's view that the world is a risky place in which they have little or no control. And the media's focus on bad news makes it worse. There's widespread fear in the population, and it is more powerful than what the facts indicate.”


“To be sure, there are contradictory economic data on the issue. Some support the contention that a recession is quite possible, and other data suggest the economy is remarkably strong given everything that has taken place.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who has more credibility on the economy than just about anyone else, recently revised his odds of a recession from greater than one in three last spring to a not-so-comforting level of less than 50-50.”

From CNN Money:

“… a survey last summer found that two-thirds of Americans believed the economy either was already in a recession or would be in the next year.

The litany of depressing news has only seemed to get worse since then: surging oil prices, mortgage defaults, investment banks writing off subprime loans, the dollar skidding to new lows - pass the Prozac.”

No comments: