tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529580665294663953.post9140239370299007228..comments2023-10-27T04:26:57.609-07:00Comments on InvestorCentric: Why Fundamentals Of The Housing Market Are Ridiculously StrongNuWire Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02512928198926080436noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529580665294663953.post-50080793397957757392009-11-20T06:04:58.366-08:002009-11-20T06:04:58.366-08:00Inventory supply is mostly a question of the middl...Inventory supply is mostly a question of the middle class walking away from homes valued 50,000 or less than their outstanding liens. With $100,000's of loses in a home, they simply will all be walking eventually UNLESS...banks + insurance companies paying them off + government programs can stall the artifically low inventory long enough for investors and buyers to create demand with the artificailly tight inventory AND start raising prices so owners will hold on. WE HAVE HIT THE LOW THOUGH..in Orlando that was in May 2009. The banks then stopped releasing inventory. They began to control it. Of course, if it does not rise, the pressure on releasing inventory will continue to increase and it coudl undergo another round of dropping..but honestly, it is low enoughnow for investors. At least, it ought to be given returns available.CraigFloridahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16529639045820404933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529580665294663953.post-87284261416451546532009-09-11T18:28:08.596-07:002009-09-11T18:28:08.596-07:00Ah, No, this is not the time to buy real estate un...Ah, No, this is not the time to buy real estate unless you want to take a big loss! I expect prices to drop another 30-50% in the next 2 years. <br /><br />Ever hear of Alt-A mortgages? They had teaser rates as low as 1% for the first 3 to 5 years. There is about a Trillion dollars worth of them that will be resetting over the next 2-3 years. It is estimated that 70% will default as monthly payments skyrocket 40-50%.<br /><br />Then there are the Jumbo mortgages. Those that are above the conventional loan limits, about $400,000. They are defaulting at a higher rate than any other mortgage class.<br /><br />And of course we have not seen the obligatory market capitualtion. There are still owners who are waiting for Godot. When they finaly realize he aint comin, they will finally sell at any price!<br /><br />Want to make money? Buy silver!kemethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02958721407579741022noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529580665294663953.post-78357865989928996602009-09-06T12:45:11.864-07:002009-09-06T12:45:11.864-07:00National association of Realtors released July inv...National association of Realtors released July inventory (on August 21) of 4.09M units which was a 7.6% increase from June's 3.8M. I wonder where is your data coming from?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8529580665294663953.post-17585688849402405032009-09-04T01:30:40.473-07:002009-09-04T01:30:40.473-07:00the problem is your analysis is purely technical. ...the problem is your analysis is purely technical. you're not looking beyond the immediate data that all points to things continuing to get worse for many, many years. here are a few signs:<br /><br />1. there is MUCH more inventory than you think. there are 100's of thousands of "shadow inventory" across the country - properties that should be on the market but are not on the MLS. the bank is holding these back to not flood the market and so the "supply" is artificial. completely artifical.<br /><br />2. job losses will continue. that will lead to more foreclosures and shrink the buyer pool (shrinking the demand).<br /><br />3. homes are not really selling. when you remove foreclosures and short sales from the stats...even when it is proclaimed in your local paper that "home sales are up!", that's a distortion of the data. Most homes are not selling. take a look at a few major cities on the web and look at how long property is sitting.<br /><br />4. auctions, foreclosures and other factors continue to drive property values down. i live in seattle. we are having 2 auctions in one day on the 27th. one of the condos is 3 blocks down the road from me and prices are SIXTY PERCENT reduced.<br /><br />hmm...what impact will that half on the other half of the condo buyers in that building that paid way more? do you think they will stay there...or walk away? and what impact do these have on teh price per square footage in teh surrounding areas?<br /><br />yes, it will force property values down, down, down.<br /><br />5. high end property is not moving...in most states.<br /><br />6. it took MANY years for this housing bubble to go up. it's not going to go down that quickly for above and additional factors. this is a historic bubble that will change the expectations people had that pricing would always go up and at a high rate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com